That sounds worse than I really intend it to. What triggered that thought was an article from the Wall Street Journal, titled "Netflix Boss Plots Life After DVD." Quoting from the article:

"…Netflix's chief executive officer, Reed Hastings, thinks his core business is doomed. As soon as four years from now, he predicts, the business that generates most of Netflix's revenue today will begin to decline, as DVDs delivered by mail steadily lose ground to movies sent straight from the Internet…..His position offers a rare look at how a CEO manages a still-hot business as its time runs out. "Almost no companies succeed at what we're doing," he says."

A couple of years ago, I blogged about how a management guru had used sigmoid curves to explain the same predicament for all businesses. Companies ride a natural wave of ascending and descending but usually don't take heed until too far into the descent (think newspapers.)

Photo by ODHD

The same goes for careers. Most people wait until the "arc" of a first career is nearly done before taking steps to plant the seeds for the next career. We can easily get caught up in the soothing blanket of success and not realize that time is running out. Time could be running out due to changes in technology, a whole industry, or just what gives you joy when you get up in the morning. In any case, pay attention, so that you won't be caught flat-footed.

Where are you on the arc of your career?