Fast Company has a great article, Hold the Interview, that makes a provocative claim:

When someone "interviews well" it has no correlation to how they will perform on the job.

If this is true, then employers and job seekers have been wasting a lot of time and energy with the interviewing process. Photo by magnusfranklin

The article is written by Dan Heath and Chip Heath, authors of the book, Made to Stick. Their solution to the interview problem? In their words,

"…[F]igure out whether candidates can do the job. Research has consistently shown that one of the best predictors of job performance is a work sample. If you're hiring a graphic designer, get them to design something. If you're hiring a salesperson, ask them to sell you something."

I was reminded of this tip when I read the obituary of Richard Deems, a prominent publisher who revived two well-known magazines, Cosmopolitan and Good Housekeeping, in the 1960's and 1970's. In talking about his ability to build a first rate staff, the article cites, "it was in part because he did his homework, requiring a prospective editor to turn our three or four simulated issues before hiring him or her."

Is a work sample the only way determine whether someone would make a good hire?  Someplace between "connecting in an interview" and "seeing the quality of the end product" there's another point of reference.

I was on a business panel last week talking about what's needed now in a changing marketplace. On the panel, I sat next to Brian Baldwin, a man who has started no less than 11 companies, mostly in health care. He's still chairman of Baxa Corporation, which employs over 600 people. His latest venture is running a perch farm (yes, you got that right, he raises fish), located in a small town in Indiana. (Why, Indiana, you ask?  I had the same question. I talked with Brian's wife, Ann, who said she grew up in Indiana. Always good to meet a fellow Hoosier. But, I digress…..)

Brian's answer to the hiring question? Simulate the work environment using a game. He decides whether someone will make a good hire by playing a few games of pool with them.  Because pool is a game of making choices (e.g., do I go for the ball in the corner or the one in the middle?) it reveals a player's judgment (or lack thereof) as well as her ability to think strategically, several shots ahead. One of the other panelists asked about Brian's track record in picking staff this way. Brian said new hires worked out about 75% of the time. I'd say that's better than most companies could hope for. Photo by fictures

If you are on the other side of the table, looking for a job, what does this mean for you? 

• Be prepared to show work samples that are relevant to the job that you are seeking.  If you don't have anything relevant, volunteer to do some work for free for a prospective employer, as a way to show the quality of the work that you do. Agree on a reasonable work product that is both valuable to the employer and hits the sweet spot of what you can do.

• Don't be afraid to show non-work facets of you that relate to how your brain is wired. Personal stories that illustrate typical behavior can be some of the most powerful ways to convey what you are naturally good at. Collect a few stories that you can use in conversation.

By using both of these tips, you and a prospective employer will avoid surprises down the road. It will also set you apart from most candidates who focus on talking a good game up front but don't really provide the substance that points to performance on the job.